About Capacity Letter
Independent commentary on the news — what happened, and what I think it means.
I'm Robin Wen. Capacity Letter is where I write down what I make of the news.
I'm an independent commentator — not a reporter with a beat, and not a columnist for a side. The method is simple even when the subject isn't: read the actual material, then work out what it means. Filings, earnings calls, policy documents, statistics, reporting in more than one language. After that comes the only part I'm really here for — say what I think, plainly, and leave it on the record where it can be checked.
The subjects are wide open. Industrial capacity, technology and the compute behind it, capital and the people who fund the build — and anything else that turns out to matter. A story doesn't have to come from any particular country, and it doesn't have to fit a section of this site. If I have a view worth defending, it belongs here.
One lens, many subjects
Three questions I keep asking. They travel — across sectors, countries, and whatever is in the news this week.
Cost
What does it cost?
Cost per unit, and what has to be true for that cost to keep falling. Cost curves often decide who survives.
Capacity
How much can be built?
Nameplate versus actual output, lead times, and the bottlenecks nobody mentions — power, tools, people.
Capital
Who pays for it?
Who funds the build, what return they need, and what breaks if they don't get it.
How a piece works
Same three moves every time.
Something that happened
An event, not a roundup: a tariff, a plant opening, an earnings call, a document. When several things point the same way, I say so.
Primary material
The filings and sources underneath, in whatever language they were written in. Numbers get sources, not vibes.
A judgment
Stated plainly and on the record. When I'm wrong, I correct it in the open rather than quietly deleting the post.
What this is not
Not investment advice
No price targets, no buy calls, no portfolio recommendations. Everything here is analysis, not advice — see thedisclaimer.
Not a news wire
I cite reporting when it matters, but the point of a post is the judgment, not the headline.
A note on the name
I write under a pen name, because I'd rather the argument be judged on its merits than on my résumé. Read the method above, check the sources, and judge the output.
Corrections are published, not hidden. If you think I've got something wrong, tell me.
Judge the argument by the work, not the bio.